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Weekly Market Commentary

-Darren Leavitt, CFA

The S&P 500 advanced for the sixth consecutive week, closing at a new record high. This week, a broadening out of the market’s rally was evident, with small caps and the equally weighted S&P 500 index outperforming. Markets also appear to be embracing parts of the market that were favored when Trump won the presidential election in 2016. The so-called Trump trade includes exposure to the financials, the US Dollar, Small Caps, and, this time around, crypto assets.  Interestingly, national polling shows the presidential race as a dead heat within the margins of error; however, in the betting venues, where over two billion is wagered on the presidential election, Trump is the clear favorite.  With just over two weeks before the election, markets feel a bit extended. Still, better-than-expected third-quarter earnings, along with robust economic data, have prompted investors off the sidelines for fears of missing out on further gains.

On the earnings front, I would highlight continued strength in the financials.  Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Blackstone were notable outperformers.  Netflix posted solid results, and so did United Airlines.  The Semiconductor sector posted mixed results this week as the Biden Administration announced further measures to curb the sales of advanced AI chip technology to specific countries.  The news came just before the errant early release of Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML’s quarterly results, where the company missed on earnings, revenues, and bookings while slashing its full-year 2025 guidance.  The news sent shares lower by 17% while its peers sold off in sympathy.  Later in the week, the Semis caught a bid off of the better-than-anticipated results from Taiwan Semiconductor.  The healthcare sector struggled this week due to disappointing results from United Health and Elevance.  Apple advanced on the news that sales of the iPhone 16 accelerated in China.

The S&P 500 added 0.9%, the Dow rose by 1%, the NASDAQ gained 0.8%, and the Russell 2000 jumped 1.9%.  The Treasury market ended the week flat, with the 2-year yield increasing by one basis point to 3.95%, while the 10-year yield closed unchanged at 4.07%.

Oil prices tumbled 8.4% on the week as several reports suggested that Israel is not currently targeting Iran’s energy infrastructure. Israel also announced that the IDF had killed the leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar.  The news prompted calls for renewed cease-fire discussions. Oil and other commodities were also weak due to the lackluster stimulus announcement made by China’s Minister of Finance, which offered very little regarding how the Chinese aim is to boost domestic consumption.   WTI, which lost $6.30 to close at $69.16, posted the largest weekly loss this year. Copper prices fell by 2.4% to $4.38 per Lb.  Gold prices topped $2700 for the first time and closed higher by 2% at $2730.20 an Oz. Bitcoin rallied 8% or $5,500 to close the week at $68,400.  The US Dollar index advanced by 0.6% to close at 103.49.

The economic calendar was relatively quiet this week.  Retail sales came in better than expected and showed a resilient consumer.  The headline number increased by 0.4% versus the consensus estimate of 0.2%, while the Ex-Autos number increased by 0.5% versus the forecast of 0.1%.  Initial claims fell by 19k to 241k, while Continuing Claims increased by 9k to 1867k.  Finally, Housing Starts were a tad light of expectations at 1354k, while Building Permits fell short of expectations at 1428k. 

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Weekly Market Commentary

U.S. financial markets logged weekly gains as Wall Street shook off tech sector volatility and focused on stabilizing energy prices. Despite severe global bond market pressure, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% and hit an all-time high this week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.93%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.64%, hovering near all-time records.  The Russell 2000 fell by 0.9%.  Yields across the US yield curve fell after forging new highs for the year.  The 2-year note fell three basis points to 4.79%, while the 10-year yield fell four basis points to close at 5.24%.  Oil prices increased by just under 1% to close the week at $91.92 a barrel.  Gold prices rose 1.3%, or $53.60, to $4216.20 per ounce.  Silver prices increased 1% to $61.05 per ounce.  Copper rose fourteen cents to $6.69 per Lb.  Bitcoin’s price fell 2.35% to $82,800.  VIX, a volatility measure, fell 3% to

Weekly Market Commentary

As we move from the third quarter into the fourth, investors have a lot to consider in this crazy market.  US equities finished the week mixed in volatile trade.  A standstill in negotiations between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher early in the week, but the realization that oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now at pre-war levels, along with news that the G7 would release 100 million gallons of oil and diesel from reserves, pushed oil prices lower.  This comes as the Pentagon is considering deploying 10,000 more troops and an additional aircraft carrier to the Gulf.  Elevated oil prices have kept inflation concerns front and center, but a cooler-than-expected PCE report, a weaker-than-anticipated Employment Situation report, and dovish remarks from Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson moved the probability of a rate hike in October from over 70% to less than 25%.  Interestingly,

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets finished the week mixed as interest rates increased across the yield curve.  Oil prices swung significantly during the week as reports suggested the US and Iran were close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  This weekend, President Trump rejected the proposed deal, with reports suggesting the US will resume more aggressive military operations after the Midterms.  This is likely to send oil prices higher on Monday and, with it, increase inflation expectations.  President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi offered little change to the current political stance.  The two countries delayed increasing tariffs until January 2027, and the two leaders are scheduled to meet two more times before year-end.   Additionally, the two leaders appear to be on the same page on AI development and pushed back on slowing it but agreed that safeguards should be put in place.  Debate continues over AI development and its safeguards. 

Weekly Market Commentary

It was a volatile week on Wall Street as traders assessed monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the Federal Reserve.  The Fed did, as expected, raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, but Fed Chairman Warsh’s very hawkish tone increased the likelihood of three more rate hikes starting later this year and in the first half of 2027.  The Fed Chair offered no forward guidance but did provide the dot plot from the other committee members.  The yield curve flattened on the announcement, with the front end of the curve selling off more than longer-duration Treasuries. Notably, the Bank of England kept its policy rate in place while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points.  A more dovish signal from the BOJ’s president sent the Yen lower.  Bottom line: the US economy is strong, employment looks stable, and inflation remains