Watch Phil Capriotti on The Wealth Council

Sundays @ 1PM on Fox Business

LEARN MORE
CLIENT PORTAL

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets ended the month of June in strong form. Better-than-expected economic data for the week showed a resilient economy and inflation moderating. Investors were dismissive of hawkish commentary from ECB President Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the European Central Bank’s summit in Portugal. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that more than two rate hikes might be necessary to curtail inflation. The markets also dismissed what appeared to be a coup d ‘etat in Russia. The Bank of Japan and the People’s Bank of China intervened in the currency markets as their currency weakened. A hotter-than-expected CPI print in Japan made some think the BOJ may move away from its easy monetary policy while China continued to announce more stimulus measures.

The S&P 500 gained 2.3% for the week, was up 6.34% in June, and ended the 2nd quarter up 15.9%. The Dow added 2% for the week, 4.4% for June, and is up 3.8% year to date. The NASDAQ increased by 2.2%, is up 6.46% for June, and has rallied 31.7% this year. The Russell 2000 inked a 3.7% advance, is up 6.76% in June, and has increased 7.2% this year. As the numbers indicate, the broader market in June participated alongside Mega-Caps.  Apple eclipsed a 3 trillion dollar market capitalization on an upgrade from Citibank.

The US Treasury market struggled again this week, and June was a challenging month for bond investors. The 2-year yield increased by thirteen basis points for the week and was up forty-nine basis points in June to close at 4.88%. The 2-year yield has risen by eighty-two basis points this year. The 10-year yield increased eight basis points last week, is up eighteen in June, and up thirty-three this year. Bond prices fall as yields rise. The US Aggregate Bond Index is up 1% year to date.

Oil prices increased by 2.1% or $1.47, with WTI closing at $70.65 a barrel. The energy sector was one of the best-performing sectors this week but has been one of the worst this year. Gold prices were little changed, closing at $1928.90 an Oz. Gold tested the $1900 price level but was able to find support at that level. Copper prices fell by $0.04 to $3.76 Lb.

Economic data showed the third estimate of Q1 GDP revised to 2% from 1.3%. The PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, increased by 0.1% on the headline number, which was slightly higher than the street consensus of a flat reading. Core PCE increased by 0.3%, in line with expectations. On a year-over-year basis, PCE increased by 3.8% in May, down from 4.3% in April, while Core CPI increased by 4.6% in May, down from 4.7% in April. Personal Income increased by 0.4% as Personal spending rose by 0.1%. New Home Sales continued to show strength in the housing market, rising by 763k units versus the estimated 680k. Consumer Confidence came in better than expected at 109.7 vs. 104. Initial claims ticked down to 239k, which was lower than the anticipated 268k. Continuing claims fell to 1742k from 1761k.

Investment advisory services offered through Foundations Investment Advisors, LLC (“FIA”), an SEC registered investment adviser. FIA’s Darren Leavitt authors this commentary which may include information and statistical data obtained from and/or prepared by third party sources that FIA deems reliable but in no way does FIA guarantee the accuracy or completeness.  All such third party information and statistical data contained herein is subject to change without notice.  Nothing herein constitutes legal, tax or investment advice or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  Personal investment advice can only be rendered after the engagement of FIA for services, execution of required documentation, including receipt of required disclosures.  All investments involve risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. For registration information on FIA, please go to https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ and search by our firm name or by our CRD #175083. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where FIA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempted.

 

Share:

View the Latest Commentaries:

Weekly Market Commentary

US equity markets fell in the holiday-shortened week as oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel, raising inflation concerns and pushing interest rates higher.  Additionally, elevated inflation data announced during the week increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would raise its policy rate by 25 basis points.  Several Gulf nations announced Friday that they would meet with Iranian officials this weekend to ease tensions, and on Sunday Tehran announced it would decide whether to open part of the Strait of Hormuz, but details of the opening were limited.  This followed Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it had shut down the oil pipeline used to circumvent the Strait. The S&P 500 fell 0.78%, the Dow gave back 1.56%, the NASDAQ declined 0.64%, and the Russell 2000 decreased by 2.39%.  US Treasuries suffered losses across the curve, with the front end of the curve getting hit hardest.  The 2-year yield increased by twenty-six

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets finished the week mixed as investors assessed the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and recalibrated expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy.  The week started with sharp declines after the US hit targets on an island in the Strait of Hormuz that were ready to launch mines into the strait.  Iran then countered with drone attacks on Jordan and the UAE.  On Saturday, there were reports that the US had hit three Iranian cargo ships after Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships.  The news sent oil prices higher, which in turn raised inflation concerns.   Markets settled down mid-week after Dell reported a solid quarter and after dovish comments made by Fed Bank of New York President John Williams.  Markets moved higher on Thursday after Fed Governor Waller said he would be willing to hold rates steady if price pressures continue to ease and noted

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets ended the week mixed as investors assessed the implications of the US economic isolation of Iran, the fallout of increased tariffs on Canada, Nvidia Q2 earnings results, and the Fed Chairman’s speech at the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole. Oh yeah, we were also treated to a slightly hotter print of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the PCE. On Monday, Treasury Secretary Bessent laid out a plan to isolate economic activity with Iran.  The plan, dubbed Economic D-day, promised economic punishment to any country doing business with Iran and suggested that, in the coming days, there will be announcements and actions taken against several entities that have worked alongside Iran to evade economic sanctions.  The US and Iran both said they would not return to the MOU signed in June, as negotiations have stalled.  Oil traded lower this week on reports that 10 million barrels

Weekly Market Commentary

US equity markets took a step back last week in what turned out to be a very busy week.  Increased yields on the long end of the curve prompted Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to double buybacks of 10- to 30-year US Treasuries in an effort to temper the rise in rates.  The move was met with a rally in both bonds and stocks; however, it was short-lived, with much of the gains being given back within a day of the announcement.  A global debasement narrative has emerged as the US deficit topped $40 trillion.  The US Dollar sold off to levels not seen since May, while precious metals and Bitcoin prices soared.  Interestingly, the correlation between Gold and Bitcoin is the highest since Covid, following massive liquidity injections by global governments.  It’s notable that several other developed markets are facing similar pressure on their sovereign debt, including Japan, the UK,