Weekly Market Commentary

It was a hectic week on Wall Street as investors contended with heightened tensions in the Middle East, awaited the largest IPO in history, and received elevated inflation readings.  The US and Iran appear to be very close to extending a fragile ceasefire, but as I write this, a deal has not yet been signed.  Tension increased over the week as Iran shot down a US Black Hawk helicopter, which in turn led to US airstrikes on Iranian infrastructure.  On Thursday, Trump suspended attacks, claiming the two sides were close to a deal.  Oil prices remain volatile but fell sharply in hopes that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen soon.  West Texas Intermediate Crude prices fell by 6.2% to $84.88 a barrel, the lowest price since mid-April.  The much-anticipated initial public offering of SpaceX took place on Friday, with the company valued at $1.75 trillion.  The IPO priced at $135 a share, opened at $150 a share, and closed the day at $160.95, up nearly 20% from the IPO price.  The successful IPO is being seen as a positive for this bull market and opens the door for several other companies to come public.  Anthropic and OpenAI have both filed to go public in the coming months.  Elevated energy prices led to inflation readings that remain high and will likely keep the Federal Reserve on hold.  The ECB raised its monetary policy rate by 25 basis points, and the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate next week.

The S&P 500, Dow, and NASDAQ rose by 0.7% this week, while the Russell 2000 increased by 3.9%.  There was a broadening out in markets with several sectors participating in the rally.  Semiconductor equipment and memory stood out as leaders, while the Software sector lagged due to a weak outlook from Oracle.  US Treasuries were bid up across the curve, with shorter-duration paper outperforming.  The 2-year yield declined by seven basis points to 4.09%, while the 10-year yield fell by five basis points to 4.49%.  As I mentioned, Oil prices tumbled by $5.69, closing the week at $84.88 per barrel.  Gold prices fell by 2.9% to $4,239.20 per ounce.  Silver prices fell by $1.13, or 1.6%, to $ 67.97 per ounce.  Copper prices increased by 2.3% to $6.44 per Lb.  Bitcoin’s price rose by 4% to $64,400.  The VIX, a measure of market volatility, fell 17% to 17.68.  The US Dollar index declined by 0.3% to close the week at 99.7.

This week’s economic calendar highlighted the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index.  Headline CPI came in at 0.5% versus the expected 0.6% and was up 4.2% year-over-year, above the 3.8% increase in April.  60% of the increase in the headline number was due to energy prices.  Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, less than the consensus estimate of 0.4%.  The Core reading increased to 2.9% from 2.8% in April, year over year.  Headline PPI increased by 1.1% versus the estimate of 0.8% and was up 6.5% year over year.  The Core PPI increased by 0.4%, less than the anticipated increase of 0.5%, and was up 4.9% over the last year.  Initial Jobless claims for the week rose by 4k to 229k, while Continuing Claims increased by 14k to 1795k.  A preliminary look at the June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment increased to 48.9 from the final reading in May of 44.8.

Investment advisory services offered through Foundations Investment Advisors, LLC (“FIA”), an SEC registered investment adviser. FIA’s Darren Leavitt authors this commentary which may include information and statistical data obtained from and/or prepared by third party sources that FIA deems reliable but in no way does FIA guarantee the accuracy or completeness.  All such third party information and statistical data contained herein is subject to change without notice.  Nothing herein constitutes legal, tax or investment advice or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  Personal investment advice can only be rendered after the engagement of FIA for services, execution of required documentation, including receipt of required disclosures.  All investments involve risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. For registration information on FIA, please go to https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ and search by our firm name or by our CRD #175083. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where FIA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempted.

Share:

View the Latest Commentaries:

Weekly Market Commentary

It was another volatile week on Wall Street, with US indices ending the week with mixed results.  Ongoing concerns about AI financing and its return on investment continued after Meta announced its 3rd-quarter results.  The company beat estimates and offered solid guidance.  However, its higher AI capital expenditures, lower margins, and negative free cash flow fueled a sell-off in AI infrastructure names.   Investors rotated into energy, staples, healthcare, and interest rate-sensitive sectors such as small-caps, real estate, and utilities.  According to FactSet, we are about a quarter of the way through 3rd-quarter earnings.  83% of the companies that reported have beaten earnings expectations, while 66% have beaten revenue expectations.  Earnings Per Share growth for the quarter is currently an impressive 29%.  Microsoft, Google, and Amazon are set to report earnings this week. Increased hostilities between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, along with what appears to be an inevitable escalation in

Weekly Market Commentary

It was a chaotic week on Wall Street as investors tried to interpret mixed Q3 financial results, a spike in oil prices, sharp swings in yields across the curve, hotter-than-expected inflation data, dovish tones from central bankers, and renewed concerns about the AI infrastructure buildout, its use of credit, and the timing of when or if there will be a return on investment.  Q3 earnings started in earnest, with several large banks reporting.  JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and Citi Bank reported solid results, while Bank of America and Wells Fargo reported disappointing results.  Equity trading drove bank outperformance this quarter, while fixed income results lagged.  Solid results from Taiwan Semiconductor were met with selling as the Semiconductor sector continued to come under pressure.  The Philadelphia Semiconductor index has declined eight consecutive days, a setup not seen since 2008.  Part of the losses were attributed to an advancement in

Weekly Market Commentary

U.S. financial markets logged weekly gains as Wall Street shook off tech sector volatility and focused on stabilizing energy prices. Despite severe global bond market pressure, the S&P 500 rose 1.15% and hit an all-time high this week; the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.93%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.64%, hovering near all-time records.  The Russell 2000 fell by 0.9%.  Yields across the US yield curve fell after forging new highs for the year.  The 2-year note fell three basis points to 4.79%, while the 10-year yield fell four basis points to close at 5.24%.  Oil prices increased by just under 1% to close the week at $91.92 a barrel.  Gold prices rose 1.3%, or $53.60, to $4216.20 per ounce.  Silver prices increased 1% to $61.05 per ounce.  Copper rose fourteen cents to $6.69 per Lb.  Bitcoin’s price fell 2.35% to $82,800.  VIX, a volatility measure, fell 3% to

Weekly Market Commentary

As we move from the third quarter into the fourth, investors have a lot to consider in this crazy market.  US equities finished the week mixed in volatile trade.  A standstill in negotiations between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher early in the week, but the realization that oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now at pre-war levels, along with news that the G7 would release 100 million gallons of oil and diesel from reserves, pushed oil prices lower.  This comes as the Pentagon is considering deploying 10,000 more troops and an additional aircraft carrier to the Gulf.  Elevated oil prices have kept inflation concerns front and center, but a cooler-than-expected PCE report, a weaker-than-anticipated Employment Situation report, and dovish remarks from Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson moved the probability of a rate hike in October from over 70% to less than 25%.  Interestingly,