Weekly Market Commentary

US equities inked another set of weekly gains on the back of mixed 4th quarter earnings results and encouraging economic data.  The S&P 500 and Dow set new all-time highs. Dutch Semiconductor Company ASML reported solid results.   Netflix, Verizon, United Airlines, American Express, and IBM also posted better-than-expected results and traded higher after their earnings announcements.   Conversely, Tesla, Intel, Texas Instruments, DuPont, Kimberly Clarke, AT&T, and Johnson and Johnson reported disappointing results and sold off after their announcements.   Monetary policy decisions from the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan were as expected, with no changes to policy rates with bankers signaling movement in policy in the coming months.  Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary, but Nikki Haley decided to remain in the Presidential race despite the victory.

The S&P 500 increased by 1.1%, the Dow rose 0.6%, the NASDAQ added 0.9%, and the Russell 2000 advanced 1.7%.  Action across the yield curve was mixed.  The front end of the curve was slightly bid while longer-tenured Treasuries were sold.  The 2-year yield declined five basis points to 4.36%.  The 10-year yield increased by one basis point to 4.16%.  Oil prices rallied by 6.2% or $4.60, with WTI closing at $78.04 a barrel.  The strong move came after China announced additional stimulus measures with reduced bank reserve requirements that could increase economic activity and oil demand.  Gold prices declined $12.20 to close at $2017 an Oz.  Copper prices increased by $0.06 to $3.85 per pound.  The US Dollar index gained 0.2% to close at 103.43.

A preliminary read on 4th quarter GDP was much more robust than expected coming in at 3.3% versus an estimated 2% growth rate.  The GDP Price Deflator also showed a more significant decrease in inflation at 1.5% vs. the expected 2.8%.   Headline PCE and Core PCE came in as expected at up 0.2% month over month, but on a year-over-year basis, the headline number was flat at 2.6% while the Core reading fell from 3.1% in November to 2.9% in December.  Personal Spending showed a resilient consumer that spent 0.7% in December versus the expectation of 0.4% figure.  Personal Income came in as expected at 0.3%.  The S&P Global US Manufacturing and Services PMIs showed expansion for both sides of the economy.  Initial Unemployment claims ticked higher by 25k to 214k, while Continuing Claims increased by 27k to 1833k.

Investment advisory services offered through Foundations Investment Advisors, LLC (“FIA”), an SEC registered investment adviser. FIA’s Darren Leavitt authors this commentary which may include information and statistical data obtained from and/or prepared by third party sources that FIA deems reliable but in no way does FIA guarantee the accuracy or completeness.  All such third party information and statistical data contained herein is subject to change without notice.  Nothing herein constitutes legal, tax or investment advice or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  Personal investment advice can only be rendered after the engagement of FIA for services, execution of required documentation, including receipt of required disclosures.  All investments involve risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. For registration information on FIA, please go to https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ and search by our firm name or by our CRD #175083. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where FIA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempted.

Share:

View the Latest Commentaries:

Weekly Market Commentary

As we move from the third quarter into the fourth, investors have a lot to consider in this crazy market.  US equities finished the week mixed in volatile trade.  A standstill in negotiations between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher early in the week, but the realization that oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is now at pre-war levels, along with news that the G7 would release 100 million gallons of oil and diesel from reserves, pushed oil prices lower.  This comes as the Pentagon is considering deploying 10,000 more troops and an additional aircraft carrier to the Gulf.  Elevated oil prices have kept inflation concerns front and center, but a cooler-than-expected PCE report, a weaker-than-anticipated Employment Situation report, and dovish remarks from Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson moved the probability of a rate hike in October from over 70% to less than 25%.  Interestingly,

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets finished the week mixed as interest rates increased across the yield curve.  Oil prices swung significantly during the week as reports suggested the US and Iran were close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  This weekend, President Trump rejected the proposed deal, with reports suggesting the US will resume more aggressive military operations after the Midterms.  This is likely to send oil prices higher on Monday and, with it, increase inflation expectations.  President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi offered little change to the current political stance.  The two countries delayed increasing tariffs until January 2027, and the two leaders are scheduled to meet two more times before year-end.   Additionally, the two leaders appear to be on the same page on AI development and pushed back on slowing it but agreed that safeguards should be put in place.  Debate continues over AI development and its safeguards. 

Weekly Market Commentary

It was a volatile week on Wall Street as traders assessed monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the Federal Reserve.  The Fed did, as expected, raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, but Fed Chairman Warsh’s very hawkish tone increased the likelihood of three more rate hikes starting later this year and in the first half of 2027.  The Fed Chair offered no forward guidance but did provide the dot plot from the other committee members.  The yield curve flattened on the announcement, with the front end of the curve selling off more than longer-duration Treasuries. Notably, the Bank of England kept its policy rate in place while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points.  A more dovish signal from the BOJ’s president sent the Yen lower.  Bottom line: the US economy is strong, employment looks stable, and inflation remains

Weekly Market Commentary

US equity markets fell in the holiday-shortened week as oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel, raising inflation concerns and pushing interest rates higher.  Additionally, elevated inflation data announced during the week increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would raise its policy rate by 25 basis points.  Several Gulf nations announced Friday that they would meet with Iranian officials this weekend to ease tensions, and on Sunday Tehran announced it would decide whether to open part of the Strait of Hormuz, but details of the opening were limited.  This followed Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it had shut down the oil pipeline used to circumvent the Strait. The S&P 500 fell 0.78%, the Dow gave back 1.56%, the NASDAQ declined 0.64%, and the Russell 2000 decreased by 2.39%.  US Treasuries suffered losses across the curve, with the front end of the curve getting hit hardest.  The 2-year yield increased by twenty-six