Weekly Market Commentary

The Federal Reserve, as expected, cut its monetary policy rate by twenty-five basis points to 3.50%-3.75% and tempered expectations for further cuts in 2026.  The decision was not unanimous, as a divided Fed considered elevated inflation against a weakening labor market.  The Summary of Economic Projections showed the Fed cutting rates by another 25 basis points in 2026, versus the Street’s expectations of two 25-basis-point cuts.  The SEP also showed an increase in economic growth and a slight decrease in inflation.  The Fed also announced it would begin buying $40 billion per month in Treasuries, a form of quantitative easing.   The Fed’s decision pushed the S&P 500 and Dow to all-time highs, even as concerns about the AI trade continued to mount.  Oracle’s third-quarter results were disappointing, sending shares down over 10%, while the company also announced that some AI data center buildouts would be pushed back by a year.  Broadcom reported a solid quarter but fell after lowering its margin outlook.  Ciena posted a nice quarter and traded higher, as did Lululemon.   There is a clear rotation underway, with money flowing into cyclicals and out of information technology and communication services.  The financial sector rose 2.3% for the week, materials 2.4%, and industrials 1.4%.  In contrast, information technology lost 2.3%, and communication services fell 3.2%.  The mega-caps fell by 1.9%, while the equally weighted S&P 500 increased by 0.73%.

For the week, the S&P 500 lost 0.6%, the Dow rose 1.1%, the NASDAQ shed 1.6%, and the Russell 2000 gained 1.2%.  The US yield curve steepened as shorter tenured paper saw slight gains while longer tenured paper saw losses.  The 2-year yield fell by three basis points to 3.53%, while the 10-year yield increased by five basis points to close at 4.19%.  Oil prices fell by 4.34% or $2.61 to $57.46 a barrel.  Gold prices increased by 1.9% to $4,327.60 per ounce.  Silver prices were up over 10% before selling off sharply on Friday, but did close the week up 4.21% at $61.36 per ounce.  Copper prices fell by ten cents to $5.36 per Lb.  Bitcoin’s price increased by $900 to $90,164.  The US Dollar index fell by 0.6% to 98.37.

The economic calendar was quiet.  Initial Jobless Claims increased by 44k to 236k, while Continuing Claims fell by 99k to 1838k.  JOLTS data showed job openings of 7.670 million, up from the prior reading of 7.658 million.  NFIB Small Business Optimism increased to 99 from 98.2.  The Employment Cost Index rose to 1% from 0.9%, above the consensus estimate of 0.9%.  This week, we will receive the BLS Employment Situation report for November, along with Retail Sales from October.

Investment advisory services offered through Foundations Investment Advisors, LLC (“FIA”), an SEC registered investment adviser. FIA’s Darren Leavitt authors this commentary which may include information and statistical data obtained from and/or prepared by third party sources that FIA deems reliable but in no way does FIA guarantee the accuracy or completeness.  All such third party information and statistical data contained herein is subject to change without notice.  Nothing herein constitutes legal, tax or investment advice or any recommendation that any security, portfolio of securities, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  Personal investment advice can only be rendered after the engagement of FIA for services, execution of required documentation, including receipt of required disclosures.  All investments involve risk and past performance is no guarantee of future results. For registration information on FIA, please go to https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ and search by our firm name or by our CRD #175083. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where FIA and its representatives are properly licensed or exempted.

Share:

View the Latest Commentaries:

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets finished the week mixed as interest rates increased across the yield curve.  Oil prices swung significantly during the week as reports suggested the US and Iran were close to a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.  This weekend, President Trump rejected the proposed deal, with reports suggesting the US will resume more aggressive military operations after the Midterms.  This is likely to send oil prices higher on Monday and, with it, increase inflation expectations.  President Trump’s meeting with Chinese leader Xi offered little change to the current political stance.  The two countries delayed increasing tariffs until January 2027, and the two leaders are scheduled to meet two more times before year-end.   Additionally, the two leaders appear to be on the same page on AI development and pushed back on slowing it but agreed that safeguards should be put in place.  Debate continues over AI development and its safeguards. 

Weekly Market Commentary

It was a volatile week on Wall Street as traders assessed monetary policy decisions from several central banks, including the Federal Reserve.  The Fed did, as expected, raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, but Fed Chairman Warsh’s very hawkish tone increased the likelihood of three more rate hikes starting later this year and in the first half of 2027.  The Fed Chair offered no forward guidance but did provide the dot plot from the other committee members.  The yield curve flattened on the announcement, with the front end of the curve selling off more than longer-duration Treasuries. Notably, the Bank of England kept its policy rate in place while the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points.  A more dovish signal from the BOJ’s president sent the Yen lower.  Bottom line: the US economy is strong, employment looks stable, and inflation remains

Weekly Market Commentary

US equity markets fell in the holiday-shortened week as oil prices surpassed $100 a barrel, raising inflation concerns and pushing interest rates higher.  Additionally, elevated inflation data announced during the week increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve would raise its policy rate by 25 basis points.  Several Gulf nations announced Friday that they would meet with Iranian officials this weekend to ease tensions, and on Sunday Tehran announced it would decide whether to open part of the Strait of Hormuz, but details of the opening were limited.  This followed Saudi Arabia’s announcement that it had shut down the oil pipeline used to circumvent the Strait. The S&P 500 fell 0.78%, the Dow gave back 1.56%, the NASDAQ declined 0.64%, and the Russell 2000 decreased by 2.39%.  US Treasuries suffered losses across the curve, with the front end of the curve getting hit hardest.  The 2-year yield increased by twenty-six

Weekly Market Commentary

Markets finished the week mixed as investors assessed the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran and recalibrated expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy.  The week started with sharp declines after the US hit targets on an island in the Strait of Hormuz that were ready to launch mines into the strait.  Iran then countered with drone attacks on Jordan and the UAE.  On Saturday, there were reports that the US had hit three Iranian cargo ships after Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships.  The news sent oil prices higher, which in turn raised inflation concerns.   Markets settled down mid-week after Dell reported a solid quarter and after dovish comments made by Fed Bank of New York President John Williams.  Markets moved higher on Thursday after Fed Governor Waller said he would be willing to hold rates steady if price pressures continue to ease and noted